EasyView
A record of the economy, one date at a time.
About this indicator: a modeled estimate (Estrella-Mishkin yield curve model, 1998) of the probability of a recession within 12 months, based on the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread. It is not a guaranteed prediction — the model has historically missed some recessions and produced false signals for others. The coefficients used here are corroborated by multiple independent sources and cross-checked against real recent data, but not verified to the exact decimal against the New York Fed's own published figure, which renders via JavaScript and couldn't be pulled directly — treat this as a well-sourced approximation, and compare against their page for the authoritative live number.
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Click near a date, then use ← → to move one day at a time
Snapshot — —
The last 12 months of history, plus a projection built from Holt's linear trend method — a simple, transparent extrapolation, not a prediction of turning points or recessions. The shaded band widens the further out it goes, reflecting how much less certain a longer-range projection really is.
The US dollar's share of allocated global foreign exchange reserves, alongside the other four most-held currencies, per the IMF's COFER survey. Quarterly, back to 1999 for the dollar, euro, yen, and pound; the yuan is only shown from late 2016 on, since the IMF didn't break it out separately before then. These five currencies don't add up to 100% — the remainder (currently around 11%) is held in smaller currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars, not shown here.